\documentclass{article}
\usepackage{com.braju.graphicalmodels}
\usepackage{amsmath}
% \special{papersize=40mm,80mm}
% \setlength{\pdfpagewidth}{40mm}
% \setlength{\pdfpageheight}{80mm}
% \usepackage[vcentering,dvips]{geometry}
% \geometry{papersize={80mm,120mm},total={80mm,120mm},margin=0mm}



\catcode`\@=11%

\pagestyle{empty}

\begin{document}
\TeXtoEPS

\LARGE
\psset{unit=10mm,arrowscale=1.5,linewidth=1.5pt}

\begin{pspicture}(0,0)(16,13)
  \SpecialCoor

  % t-1
  
  \fnode[framesize=35pt](4,3){b_t1}
  \rput(4,3){$\boldsymbol{b}_k^{t-1}$}  
 
  \rput(4,7){\GM@node[observed=true]{y_il_t1}}
  \GM@label[angle=45]{y_il_t1}{$\boldsymbol{y}_{il}^{t-1}$}  
  
  \rput(4,9){\GM@node{q_il_t1}}
  \GM@label[angle=45]{q_il_t1}{$q_{il}^{t-1}$}  
  
  \rput(2.5,6){\GM@plate{3}{4}{}}  
  
  \rput(4,11){\ovalnode{pi_t1}{\phantom{abcd}}}
  \rput(4,11){$\boldsymbol{\pi}_i^{t-1}$}  
  
  \ncline{->}{b_t1}{y_il_t1}  
  \ncline{->}{q_il_t1}{y_il_t1}
  \ncline{->}{pi_t1}{q_il_t1}
  
  \rput(2,5.2){\GM@plate{4}{6.6}{$N$}}

  % t
  
  \fnode[framesize=35pt](9,3){b_t2}
  \rput(9,3){$\boldsymbol{b}_k^{t}$}  
 
  \rput(9,7){\GM@node[observed=true]{y_il_t2}}
  \GM@label[angle=45]{y_il_t2}{$\boldsymbol{y}_{il}^t$}  
  
  \rput(9,9){\GM@node{q_il_t2}}
  \GM@label[angle=45]{q_il_t2}{$q_{il}^t$}  
  
  \rput(7.5,6){\GM@plate{3}{4}{}}  
  
  \rput(9,11){\ovalnode{pi_t2}{\phantom{abcd}}}
  \rput(9,11){$\boldsymbol{\pi}_i^t$}  
  
  \ncline{->}{b_t2}{y_il_t2}  
  \ncline{->}{q_il_t2}{y_il_t2}
  \ncline{->}{pi_t2}{q_il_t2}
  
  \rput(7,5.2){\GM@plate{4}{6.6}{$N$}}


  % t+1
  
  \fnode[framesize=35pt](14,3){b_t3}
  \rput(14,3){$\boldsymbol{b}_k^{t+1}$}  
 
  \rput(14,7){\GM@node[observed=true]{y_il_t3}}
  \GM@label[angle=45]{y_il_t3}{$\boldsymbol{y}_{il}^{t+1}$}  
  
  \rput(14,9){\GM@node{q_il_t3}}
  \GM@label[angle=45]{q_il_t3}{$q_{il}^{t+1}$}  
  
  \rput(12.5,6){\GM@plate{3}{4}{}}  
  
  \rput(14,11){\ovalnode{pi_t3}{\phantom{abcd}}}
  \rput(14,11){$\boldsymbol{\pi}_i^{t+1}$}  
  
  \ncline{->}{b_t3}{y_il_t3}  
  \ncline{->}{q_il_t3}{y_il_t3}
  \ncline{->}{pi_t3}{q_il_t3}
  
  \rput(12,5.2){\GM@plate{4}{6.6}{$N$}}

  % misc
  \rput(2,1.5){\GM@plate{14}{3}{$K$}}  
  
  \rput(9,13){\GM@node{alpha}}
  \GM@label[angle=90]{alpha}{$\alpha$}  
  
  \ncline{->}{b_t1}{b_t2}
  \ncline{->}{b_t2}{b_t3}  
  \ncangle[angleA=-180,angleB=90,linearc=0.5]{->}{alpha}{pi_t1}
  \ncline{->}{alpha}{pi_t2}
  \ncangle[angleA=0,angleB=90,linearc=0.5]{->}{alpha}{pi_t3}  
  
\end{pspicture}

\endTeXtoEPS
\end{document}