**Go backward to **Solution to part (f)

**Go up to **3 Variable Elimination Algorithm (Singly Connected)

**Go forward to **Solution to part (h)

## Solution to part (g)

What is the posterior probability distribution of *A*? What is the
prior probability of the observations?
There is only one factor that contains *A*, this represents *P(A &g)*. We can get the probability of *g* is *0.360380144+ 0.149368656 =
0.50975*.

We can then calculate the posterior distribution on *A* (to 3
significant digits):

*P(a|g) = (0.360380144)/(0.50975) = 0.707*

*P(¬a | g) = (0.149368656 )/(0.50975) = 0.293*

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material, ©David Poole, Alan Mackworth and Randy Goebel, 1999