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Solution to part (g)

What is the posterior probability distribution of A? What is the prior probability of the observations?

There is only one factor that contains A, this represents P(A &g). We can get the probability of g is 0.360380144+ 0.149368656 = 0.50975.

We can then calculate the posterior distribution on A (to 3 significant digits):

P(a|g) = (0.360380144)/(0.50975) = 0.707
P(¬a | g) = (0.149368656 )/(0.50975) = 0.293

Computational Intelligence online material, ©David Poole, Alan Mackworth and Randy Goebel, 1999

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